Scenario Planning

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Scenario Planning da Mind Map: Scenario Planning

1. Data

2. BUILDING A SCENARIO

2.1. Methodology

2.1.1. Timing

2.1.1.1. How many people

2.1.1.1.1. A typical scenario planning exercise involves 15 to 30 participants, selected to represent a cross-section of the company or organization. Often, customers, suppliers, regulators, industry experts, academics, and other relevant outsiders are involved as well, largely to provide information.

2.1.1.2. The process typically requires significant preparatory research, a series of half-day or full-day workshops, and a number of senior management debriefing meetings. A complete exercise takes from three to nine months

2.2. Examine the results of environmental analysis

2.2.1. To determine which are the most important factors that will decide the nature of the future environment within which the organisation operates.

2.2.1.1. Users tend to prefer the term 'drivers' (for change), since this terminology is not laden with quasi-scientific connotations and reinforces the participant's commitment to search for those forces which will act to change the future.

2.3. Time Setting

2.3.1. Set the time horizon that you are imposing to your scenario.

2.3.1.1. -Short enough that probable -Long enough for impact

2.4. Key Focal Issue - "The Big Question"

2.4.1. La definizione di uno scenario parte da una domanda fondamentale:“one billion dollar question" -“What keeps you up at night?” -“What one question would you ask a real psychic?” See Examples in note

2.4.1.1. Relevant

2.4.1.1.1. Usually, the issue is a: -Significant -Upcoming decision or -A strategic uncertainty that has important, long-range consequences for the fortunes of the organization.

2.4.1.1.2. Cosa vorresti più sapere sul futuro

2.4.1.2. Questionabile

2.4.1.2.1. Riguardante un tema su cui vi `e profonda incertezza.

2.4.1.3. Broad

2.4.1.4. Entro il Time Set?

2.4.1.5. Exemples:

2.4.1.5.1. Quale Futuro dell'Industria Farmaceutica (187-189)

2.4.1.5.2. California wine industry’s future

2.4.1.5.3. Peace in the Middle East

2.5. Driving Forces

2.5.1. Cosa sono le Driving Forces

2.5.1.1. Trends that likely to affect, influence, and shape key focal issue (PESTEL),

2.5.1.1.1. PESTL

2.5.1.2. Predetermined trends and uncertainties

2.5.2. Step

2.5.2.1. Domanda

2.5.2.1.1. -Quali sono i fattori che hanno un impatto sullo scenario? -Quali i fattori che ne determinano le dinamiche?

2.5.2.1.2. Caratteristiche della domanda

2.5.2.2. Search

2.5.2.2.1. Examples global scenarios for 2025:  Shell International Limited  U.S. National Intelligence Council  World Economic Forum

2.5.2.2.2. Futures studies organizations:  Decision Strategies International  Institute for the Future  Kairos Future  McKinsey Global Institute

2.5.2.2.3. Other tips:  Blogs, wikipedia, slideshare, twitter  Search words: scenario, foresight, trend, trendspotting, trendwatching, future studies, institute for future

2.5.2.2.4. Take a critical perspective of your sources: Author and authority:  Author credentials?  Publisher credentials? Accuracy of research and data collection:  Choice of method?  Data collection? Accuracy and objectivity of document:  Are trends, findings supported by data, references?  Degree of objectivity?  Logical conclusions?

2.5.2.3. Brainstorming

2.5.2.3.1. Brainstorm list of PESTEL trends that could impact focal issue

2.6. Critical Uncertainties

2.6.1. Evaluate

2.6.1.1. Evaluate the identified trends.

2.6.1.1.1. Predetermined forces: What are the Certain; Important trends?

2.6.1.1.2. What are the Critical Uncertainties?

2.6.1.1.3. How predictable?

2.6.1.1.4. Degree of impact on focal issue?

2.6.2. Top 5 Critical Uncertainties

2.6.2.1. Must be very low correlation between pair of uncertainties

2.6.2.2. Which 4-5 Critical Uncertainties have the highest uncertainty and highest impact?

2.6.2.3. Test 4-5 most Critical Uncertainties in pairs in scenario framework

2.6.3. Choose 2 Uncertainties

2.6.3.1. Identificare le due variabili più rilevanti I due fattori, tra di loro il più possibile ortogonali (cioè non correlati) che vengono considerati i più rilevanti per lo scenario in questione.

2.7. Scenario Framework

2.7.1. L’incrocio delle due variabili va a formare una matrice 2×2. Sull’asse delle ascisse verranno indicati i due valori estremi che una delle due variabili scelte pu`o assumere. Sull’asse delle ordinate verranno posti ivalori estremi dell’altra variabile.

2.8. Scenarios

2.8.1. Le quattro caselle della matrice rappresentano quattro mondi alternativi, realizzabili a seconda dello sviluppo in un senso o nell’altro delle due variabili critiche. E utile, a fini comunicativi, associare un nome a queste quattro situazioni che rappresentano quattro scenari.

2.8.1.1. Scenario

2.8.2. Requirements of each scenario

2.8.2.1.  Unlike the present but likely and arguable  Internally consistent yet distinct  Relevant to the issue or question of interest  Tailored to company  Recognizable from early and weak signals of change  Challenging as it contains some elements of surprise or novelty in directions where organization‟s vision needs to be stretched

2.9. Storytelling

2.9.1. A questo punto è possibile focalizzarsi sulla descrizione di questi quattro mondi possibili.

2.9.2. It is important to link the scenarios back to the present by answering the question, “How did the world get from here to there?” This link increases the probability that scenarios will be perceived as realistic

2.9.3. When writing scenario narratives...

2.9.3.1. Esempi

2.9.3.1.1. Industria Farmacologica

2.9.3.1.2. Linux

2.9.3.2. Who does what, with whom, when, where and why?

2.9.3.3. Plausible, consistent stories describing the path and environment towards the End State of the scenario framework.

2.9.3.3.1.  A story needs a title, beginning, middle, and an end.  The difference in scenarios should be clear and the names are an important part of aligning them to different worlds.  A small set of variables will be identical in all scenarios.  Key variables should be quantified and early indicators listed.  Summarize in scenario table to see if really different

2.10. From Scenario to Strategy

2.10.1. Una volta descritti i contenuti di queste diverse situazioni, è necessario ritornare al modello di business che si vuole perseguire e dunque ragionare su quali possano essere le implicazioni strategiche e le opzioni disponibili a seconda della proiezione verso una direzione piuttosto che un’altra.

2.10.1.1. Esempio

2.10.2. Riflettere su quale di questi quattro scenari pu`o essere pi`u desiderabile pu`o portare anche i gruppi di lavoro a riflettere sul problema di partenza, riqualificandolo o identificando possibili soluzioni di business alternative e fino a quel momento non prese in considerazione.

2.10.3. Domande

2.10.3.1. How would you try and seek solutions for the problem that you have identified if you had to work into one of these worlds?

2.10.3.2. What are the main opportunities and threats that each scenario poses for your organization?

2.10.3.3. How well prepared are you (or can you be) to seize these opportunities and avert or minimize the threats?

2.10.4. Strategy

2.10.4.1. Approaches to Strategy

2.10.4.1.1. Robust strategy - Perform well over the full range of scenarios considered - “Blue Chip”  Flexible - Keep options open and / or wait for as long as possible before committing - “Hedging”  Multiple coverage - Pursue multiple strategies simultaneously until future becomes clear - “Scattergun”  Gambling - Select one strategy which works very well, but in only one or two scenarios - “Bet the Farm”

2.10.4.2. Examine what could happen if these scenarios become reality, and what that can mean to your organization.  Consider both immediate and longer-term consequences for your organization for each of the scenarios.  What are the main opportunities and threats each scenario poses for your organization?  List contingencies that should be put in place now to deal with these scenarios.  Develop a robust strategy that is resilient and viable regardless of which scenario actually does occur.  Consider the following:  Given these possible futures, what is your overall assessment of the organization‟s strategy?  Where is your strategy vulnerable? What major modifications do you recommend to the strategy? Will you be flexible to change this strategy in response?  How will you know which scenario is actually unfolding? What are the “flash points” or “sign-posts” (either metrics or events)? Which key indicators must occur for that scene to become reality?  When should your vision change in response to environmental shifts?

2.10.4.2.1. Esempio