Sports Betting Plan

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Sports Betting Plan by Mind Map: Sports Betting Plan

1. Betting Terms

1.1. Steam

1.1.1. Steam is when odds start moving rapidly on a given game. A player might be watching an odds feed and suddenly see red lights indicating movement on dozens of sites. Betting steam is spotting this occurring and then quickly betting at one of the sportsbooks that haven’t yet moved their line. The idea behind this strategy is betting lines move due to wagers placed, and a large volume in wagers placed means something. Either a big syndicate started making bets, insider info just leaked (perhaps about an injury) or something else. Generally steam betting is profitable, but it’s also the most common reason players are given personal limit collars.

1.2. Bar Stool Pundits. Abbreviated as BSP. A term used for universal consensus from the general public, i.e. walk in to your local sports bar and ask the Bar Stool Pundits who they think is going to win. If there's a consensus, that's a BSP pick. Juice – see Vigorish Kelly betting – Kelly betting refers to a method of calculating your wager size given your edge on a bet Line - see Spread Middling – Betting both sides of a game in a way that gives you a chance to win both wagers. For example, let’s say Dallas is playing Denver. If you bet Dallas +3.5 at one book and Denver -2.5 at another, you win both bets if the game lands on 3. If it lands anywhere else, you only have to pay the vig. This allows you to bet much larger than your normally would. Pinny - a common abbreviation for Pinnacle Sports Book. Generally regarded as one of the top books. PK or Pick or Pick'Em - a spread of +0 for each team. Mostly shown as PK but sometimes expressed as Pick or referred to casually as "a Pick'Em". Note that you still pay "vig" on a PK line. Push – When the outcome of a game falls exactly on the line, it is a “push” and the money is returned to bettors. For example, if the line on a game is New England -3 and they win by exactly 3, it is a push. Runline – an alternative method for betting baseball; typically given as Team A -1.5 / Team B +1.5. This means that team A has to win by at least 1.5 runs to win a bet on Team A, and a bet on Team B wins if B loses by no more than 1 run. Scalping – betting both sides of the same game in a way that guarantees a profit; for example, laying -120 on the favorite and taking +140 on the underdog Sharps – knowledgeable bettors Spread - a specific victory margin set for a game which must be "covered" to win your bet against the spread. For example, Chargers -7 means that the Chargers must outscore their opponents by 8 points or more to win this bet. If the Chargers win by seven in this case, the bet is a Push. Squares – unsophisticated bettors, collectively known as “the public” Square line – lines offered to square bettors, often shaded against favorites, overs, and other popular bets Sharp line – lines offered to sharp bettors, often shaded against underdogs, unders, and other advantage bets. Unit - a standard amount you bet on a game. Generally recommended as 1%-2% of your bankroll. So if you have a $2000 bankroll and typically bet $20 per game, then $20 is your unit. Posting plays as units instead of $$$ is better as it lets people see an independant measure of strength regardless of if you're betting $20 units or $200 units or $2000 units. Vigorish (vig) – This is the “fee” that sportsbooks charge for your wager. So instead of getting even money on your wagers, you must lay -110, -105, or something similar. The extra money you must wager is the vig.

2. Sports

2.1. MLB

2.2. Basketball

2.2.1. NCAA Basketball

2.2.2. NBA

2.3. Fantasy

2.4. Golf

2.5. Tennis

3. Meta Learning

3.1. Coach or Mentor

3.2. One Pager

3.3. Measure and Improve

3.3.1. Include financial metrics (definition of success)

3.4. Stakes

4. Overview

4.1. Purpose

4.1.1. Operate a fund comprised of you and your friends money making wagers on sports. The most awesome income generating opportunity for me would be to earn money while making my friends and family money through the excitement of sports.

4.2. Plan

4.2.1. Place One Hypothetical Bet Per Day

4.3. Goals

4.3.1. Up Trending Graph of 50 plus bets

4.4. Betting Options

4.4.1. Traditional

4.4.2. Live

4.5. Stratagies

4.5.1. Arbitrage

4.5.2. Sports Information Notification System

4.6. Tips for Begginers

4.6.1. Check out Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) by Tech.

4.6.2. Although containing some outdated information also check out: Tips for the new sports bettor I get asked this question by PM quite a bit, and thought that it wouldn't hurt to start a new thread on it, see if we can get some of the various veterans to pitch in and comment. here are my quick thoughts from my latest PM answer. Post your own tips, or post your own questions even, and I'll pull this stuff together for inclusion in the FAQ. Thanks in advance... -P two most important tips for getting started would be 1) buy Sharp Sports Betting 2) Read the forum's FAQ and all linked threads, if you haven't already. Don't hesitate to ask questions. Especially if they're not clearly answered in the FAQ. But even if they are covered in the FAQ, you're not going to get your hand slapped, just your thread locked. Better to ask than sit in silence. Betting even only $1-$2 a game will still give you a good introduction to sports betting and good feedback on your picks. And shouldn't break your heart if you lose $20 - $30 over a sports season. Even betting the $1 a game is the better way to go than just trying to track free picks, as it gives you an accurate record. People that don't keep acurate records often delude themselves to thinking that they're better than they are... and just that simple mechanism of betting $1 will make you appreciate the value of lineshopping, line moves, etc etc. Don't try to bet too many games at once. Depending on the sport(s) you're handicapping, just pick a couple games a week / day and go with them. For example, a lot of people roll in to the NFL and then pick 6-8 games + totals. That's too many for someone just getting started. Concentrate on finding one, maybe two games a weekend in the NFL. Maybe 2-3 if you're in College Football, etc. Post your picks publicly, and post a writeup on WHY you're picking that game. Discuss the merits of your picks, and other people's picks. You'll gain a lot more from this discussion process than you will from just making your picks and posting your record for the sake of "credibility". Be better informed than Joe Public. Live, eat, breathe your sport. I believe I have a big edge in MMA because I'm a walking MMA encyclopedia and I stay current on all the news. its not just because I can break down a fight but its also because when I see a guy come in, I've seen all of his previous fights, likely multiple times, I know who he is, who he trains with, what he thinks, everything i can know about him. If you're going to handicap the NFL, or any other sport, you should be all over it the same way. Keep your units small. if you have $100 to wager, bet $1 per game. Don't go to $2 a game until you have $200. Most people deposit $200 and wager $25 or $50 a game and go busto in a couple weeks. Start small, be smart, don't go broke. We're talking about small edges in sports betting, so you need a much better bankroll than a lot of other gambling games. Start by creating your own lines every week before you check the next weeks' lines. i.e. in football every Sunday after the 4:00 games sit down with a blank NFL schedule for the following week and come up with what you think the spread should be for every game. Then the following week see how well you did. As you keep adjusting, this will provide you good feedback and will eventually help you identify lines that are out of whack. Lineshopping is critical. If you only have a $100 bankroll you really can't afford to shop much, so you're going to have to pick a great book, but you could split your money across two top books to let you shop some. Mansion is nice if you're playing NFL teasers. Check the book recomendation thread in the FAQ, its probably going to be pinnacle as i think they let you bet $1 a game. Be sure and check on that too, obviously.

4.6.3. Am I sharp or am I square? See this thread from "TrixTrix" for a good discussion of some pointers that he feels delineates a sharp bettor from a square one. These are good points to read for someone just getting started as goals to work towards... the rule of thumb is if you're unsure whether or not you're sharp and have to ask, you're NOT the next 6 pts generally outlines a true sharp player, you likely need at least 4 to be within what's considered as sharp territory, also make sure the entire bullet applies 1.) you are willing to shop for the best number and not just grab it from your 1st out, you also have some predictions as to the overall line movement for the bet and try to time your bets to obtain the best shopped number at its apex. 2.) you actively try to find and bet middles, scalps, +ev promotions and bonuses whenever possible. a large part of this again depends on your predictions of line movement. also any +ev derivative of straight bet combinations, whenever they could be found such as correlated parlays/teasers/etc... 3.) you handicap the sport w/out the aid of the seeing the lines already in place, you constantly use tools such as datamining, insider knowledge, statistics and winning subsets to help you improve your handicapping. you also present value the bet after the game is over and see how accurate your original cap was and how you can further improve the process. this is then factored into your next handicap w/ the most recent results more heavily weighted. 4.) when you have active discussions w/ other gamblers whom you respect to be sharp (or reading their books or posts), you're more interested in discussing and learning their winning methods than just to obtain their picks 5.) how consistently you can beat the average closing line/price (see daringly's post) 6.) you have a bankroll set aside for gambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long term records of all your bets. you have won consistently over the long term at the sports that you're presently betting (refer to your detailed records), and you have cut back or ceased altogether betting on the sports that you have not consistently demonstrated a profit in. you use some derivative form of kelly criterion to help you size your bets according to the estimated edge based on both your current calculations and previous records.

5. Technology

5.1. Sharp Bet Tracker

5.2. Zoho Creator

5.3. Simulators

6. Info & Data Sources

6.1. Books

6.1.1. Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong (Own on Kindle)

6.1.2. Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao WOSB (Own Paperback) Categories WOSB pg 46 Handicapping Relative Value Handicapping / Relative Value Overlap Betting Hedging

6.1.3. Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu Feustel (Need to Buy)

6.2. Websites and Forums

6.2.1. Two Plus Two Forums Online Sportsbook Discussion Thread

6.2.2. Eye on Gaming

6.2.3. Sports Book Review

6.2.4. Advantage Player

6.2.5. BJ 21



6.2.8. Goldsheet

6.2.9. SBR Lines

6.2.10. The Logical Appreach

7. Sports Betting Market

7.1. Sports Books

7.1.1. Online Legal Rake back and Affiliate Options Offshore

7.1.2. Casino Apps

7.2. Line Movement

7.2.1. Big action on one side

7.2.2. Seeing a sharp better bet on one side and having the desire to be on that same side

7.2.3. Breaking news concerning players and/or teams such as injuries or lineup changes

7.2.4. A changing weather forecast

7.2.5. Seeing the lines move at other sports books (moving on air)

7.3. Market Efficiency is dependent on the following

7.3.1. Ratio of square money to sharp money

7.3.2. Comparative knowledge between line makers and sharp betters.